The economy appears to be in good shape approaching the end of this fiscal year. In April, foreign reserves hit a record high, and Egypt successfully held its first euro-denominated public debt issuance. Since the government embarked on its IMF-backed structural reform program in November 2016, foreign reserves have been on an upward trend. This trend continued in April as investors banked on the reform progress that has seen the pound freely floated and the twin deficits trimmed. In the same month, business conditions in the non-oil private sector improved for the first time since last November on the back of higher new business orders and stable output. Meanwhile, in late April, a second production unit came online at the offshore Zohr gas field. The new unit will double the fields output capacity, bringing Egypt a step closer to ending its dependency on LNG imports.
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Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)
In March, urban consumer prices rose 0.99% from the previous month, accelerating from Februarys 0.29% increase.
5 years of Egypt economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
Consumption (annual variation in %)
The Emirates NBD Egypt Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) ticked down from 49.7 in February to 49.2 in March, signaling a mild worsening in business conditions in the non-oil private sector.
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)
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Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)
The draft FY 2019 budget approved by cabinet on 18 March aims to further reduce the budget deficit in order to trim the hefty public debt burden.
At its 29 March monetary policy meeting, the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) slashed all its key interest rates by 100 basis points.
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)
The Emirates NBD Egypt Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) rose to 50.1 in April from 49.2 in March.
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Growth should accelerate this year and next. Investment will support the economy, boosted by an improved regulatory environmentthanks in large part to several recent measures, such as new investment, bankruptcy and industrial licensing laws. In addition, the external sector will continue to benefit from the weaker pound. However, the elevated debt burden and sizeable budget deficit continue to pose downside risks. FocusEconomics analysts expect GDP to expand 4.8% in FY 2018, up 0.1 percentage points from last months forecast, and 5.0% in FY 2019.
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Consumption (annual variation in %)