IEA 2018 Crude Oil price Outlook

Ultimately, the oil market looks fundamentally different than it did last year or even last quarter. The sharp drop in global inventories alone is evidence that things are heading in the right direction. But the journey isnt over yet.

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In its monthly report, IEA sees global demand for crude growing by 1.6 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2017. Also, it says the crude demand may moderate to 1.4 million bpd in 2018.

There is little doubt that leading producers have re-committed to do whatever it takes to underpin the market and to support the long process of rebalancing, the agency said.

The IEA expects demand for OPECs crude to rise to 32.98 million bpd in the fourth quarter of this year, above Septembers output, and then to fall to 31.87 million bpd in the first three months of 2018. However, the IEA sees non-OPEC crude supply rising by 700,000 bpd in 2017, and by 1.5 million in 2018 to reach 59.6 million bpd.

Production likely rebounded in the North Sea and in Brazil. While the continued ramp-up of production from new fields in Kazakhstan,Ghana and Congo also contributed. At 57.9 million bpd, total non-OPEC output stood 975,000 bpd above a year earlier,the agency said in its IEA 2018 Crude Oil price Outlook.

According to IEA, commercial stocks in industrialized countries fell in August by 14.2 million barrels to 3.015 billion barrels. This has left a surplus of 170 million barrels above the five-year average.

Crude Oil Price Fundamental Outlook

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Taking 2018 as a whole, oil demand and non-OPEC production will grow by roughly the same volume and it is this current outlook that might act as the ceiling for aspirations of higher oil prices.

US crude production aided in large part by resurgent shale output, which grew by 550,000 bpd in July compared with a year earlier to 9.24 million bpd, its highest since November 2015. The impact of Hurricane Harvey expected to have curtailed production in August and September. Similarly, the agency expects US crude output to grow by 470,000 bpd and by 1.1 million bpd in 2018.

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OPEC supply was standing at 32.65 million bpd in September, but down 400,000 bpd from a year earlier. It means the groups compliance with its self-imposed 1.2-million bpd output cut stood at 88 percent last month and 86 percent for the year to date, the IEA said. With its partners including Russia,

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Commercial oil stocks likely fell in the third quarter of this year. Only the second draw since the crude price crashed in 2014,itsaid.

However, the IEA said its numbers implied a build of up to 800,000 bpd could take place in the first quarter of next year. It means the OPEC countries and its partners cannot afford a slip in adherence to their supply-restraint deal.

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According to Paris-based International Energy Agency, the oil prices will hit a ceiling in 2018. How does it affect the financial market? Lets have a look onIEA 2018 Crude Oil price Outlook.

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The global oil market continues to make progress, but the ongoing production gains from non-OPEC countries will probably act as a the ceiling for aspirations of higher oil prices in 2018, the agency said.

13 October,AtoZForexGlobal supply and demand for crude oil are set to balance largely next year, as growth in consumption will erode a three-year-old overhang of unused fuel and should mostly offset a steep rise in output,  according to a report of the International Energy Agency.

With its partners including Russia, Oman, and Kazakhstan, OPEC has agreed to restrain output by 1.8 million bpd until March next year.

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Looking into 2018, we see that three quarters out of four will be roughly balanced again using an assumption of unchanged OPEC production, and based on normal weather conditions,the agency said.

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